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The Asia Pacific real estate market shows resilience amid a gradual economic slowdown, with GDP growth projected at 3.9% for 2024 and 2025. While office cap rates have seen minimal expansion, investor interest remains strong due to robust rental outlooks, particularly in Australia and South Korea, despite mixed leasing activity and rising vacancy rates in logistics. Geopolitical risks, particularly from potential US tariffs on China, pose challenges, but some APAC countries may benefit from supply chain adjustments.
South Korea's yield spread has improved significantly, with the 5-year interest rate swap dropping to about 2.9% due to falling inflation expectations. While office cap rates have only slightly increased, strong investor interest persists, driven by a robust rental outlook. In the broader APAC region, GDP growth is projected at 3.9% for 2024 and 2025, despite potential geopolitical risks, particularly from US-China trade tensions.
South Korea's yield spread has improved significantly, with 5-year interest rates dropping to about 2.9% amid falling inflation expectations. While office cap rates have seen minimal expansion, strong investor interest persists due to a robust rental outlook. APAC GDP is projected to grow 3.9% in 2024 and 2025, despite potential geopolitical risks, particularly from a possible 60% US tariff on China, which could negatively impact the region's trade dynamics.
The Asia Pacific economy is projected to grow 3.9% in 2024 and 2025, despite a gradual slowdown and potential risks from geopolitical shifts, particularly a looming US tariff threat on China. While leasing activity showed mixed results, with stable retail performance and rising vacancy rates in logistics, capital markets are beginning to recover, particularly in Australia and South Korea, despite a significant decline in Japan. Cap rates are stabilizing in most regions, signaling the potential end of the cap rate upcycle.
Billionaires' wealth surged 121% over the past decade, reaching $14 trillion, with tech billionaires seeing the fastest growth. The number of billionaires rose from 1,757 to 2,682, while new billionaires in 2024 were predominantly self-made entrepreneurs. Despite a slowdown in growth since 2020, North American billionaires led gains, while wealth from China declined significantly.
China plans to give its domestically produced goods a competitive edge in government procurement by pricing them 20% lower than their actual sales figures when compared to foreign products. This initiative, outlined in a draft rule by the Ministry of Finance, aims to bolster local supply chains against potential US tariff increases. Public feedback is currently being sought before the rule is finalized.
All three major US stock indices reached record highs, with the Dow Jones surpassing 45,000, buoyed by positive remarks from Fed Chair Powell on economic resilience and inflation progress. Meanwhile, the ASX 200 also hit a new peak, though momentum waned after Australia's Q3 GDP growth slowed to 0.8%, the weakest since the 1990s recession. Key economic indicators are set for release next week, including the RBA's interest rate decision and US CPI data.
China is seeking public feedback on new guidelines for reporting greenhouse gas emissions from the steel industry, as announced by the environment ministry. This initiative is part of the country's efforts to prepare steel mills for participation in its carbon market.
Billionaires' wealth surged 121% over the past decade, reaching $14 trillion, with tech billionaires seeing the fastest growth. In 2024, 268 new billionaires emerged, primarily self-made, while North American billionaires' wealth rose significantly, contrasting with declines in China. UBS forecasts an uncertain future for billionaires amid geopolitical tensions and evolving industries like generative AI and renewables.
China's central bank is set to implement its largest interest-rate cuts in a decade, with Wall Street banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predicting reductions of up to 40 basis points in 2025. This move aims to bolster growth and combat deflation amid ongoing economic challenges, including a prolonged property slump and subdued credit demand. Central bank chief Pan Gongsheng is prepared to support these efforts, although analysts caution that monetary policy alone may not suffice to stimulate the economy.
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Asia Pacific Real Estate Outlook 2024 Navigating Economic Challenges and Opportunities
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